On the impact of Obama's re-election on plastic re

  • Detail

On the impact of Obama's re-election on plastic related industries

in the early morning of November 7 local time, the dust of the U.S. presidential election was settled. U.S. President Barack Obama won more than 270 electoral votes, most of which were imported from abroad, and was successfully re elected. However, what changes will happen to the domestic plastic market after Obama, who advocates that the government should intervene in the economy when necessary, levy taxes on the rich, prefers an intermediate policy in foreign policy, and advocates the health care reform bill on social issues, successfully defended his title

qe3 launched to ease the economic downturn, and crude oil is expected to rise

first, the monetary policy of quantitative easing has been continued. In the first debate between Obama and Romney, Obama first proposed "investing in re education and training, developing and investing in new energy, and giving tax breaks to companies that invest in the United States". However, the recovery of the U.S. economy, which has not yet emerged from the shadow of the financial crisis, is still slow at this stage. It is obviously unrealistic for Obama to rely on economic growth to realize his economic proposition, and the ultimate result is most likely to further expand the deficit. In this case, quantitative easing has become an arrow on the string

looking back on QE1 and QE2, after the implementation of QE1 from 2008 to 2009, the GDP growth rate (month on month, annual rate) changed from -6.7% in the fourth quarter of 2008 to 3.8% in the fourth quarter of 2009. However, the effect of QE2 implemented from November 2010 to June 2011 is worse. The growth rate in the third quarter of 2011 was lower than that in the third quarter of 2010 before the implementation. During the three quarters of QE2 implementation, the unemployment rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points. It fell by 1.0 percentage points in the three quarters after the end of the period. It can be seen that the fundamental problem of the current U.S. economy is not the lack of liquidity, but the lack of consumption demand and investment demand in the structure, and the lack of growth points in the entire economy

although it remains to be seen whether qe3, officially launched in September this year, can alleviate the downward pressure on the economy and increase employment, its impact on today's China's need for an agile and strong leader and commodity market prices cannot be underestimated. The Federal Reserve continued to inject water into the capital market, causing the dollar to fall, raising concerns about the flooding of liquidity in the market. Therefore, after the launch of qe3, the prices of bulk commodities, especially industrial products and precious metals, rose sharply, and bulk commodities such as copper, gold and crude oil are expected to usher in a new round of rising cycle

At the end of 2011, U.S. President Barack Obama launched his re-election campaign and blamed China for the trade differences between China and the United States. "We have stopped the influx of Chinese tires and made more than 1000 Americans get jobs," Obama said In tough terms, Obama announced that a trade law enforcement department would be established in the future to investigate the so-called "unfair trade practices" of countries like China. It is understood that if Obama restricts and suppresses Sino US trade, it may cause a sharp decline in the export of many Chinese products

Obama's speech made many Chinese enterprises feel headache. As far as the tire industry is concerned, it will not be so easy to export products to the United States in the future. Heavy pressure may make Chinese enterprises abandon the U.S. market. At the same time, such remarks make Chinese enterprises worried about the future U.S. market. Chinese products have always impacted the international market with high quality and low price. If the United States restricts and attacks Sino US trade, it is expected that many domestic industries such as plastics and rubber will be affected

whether Obama will turn rhetoric into action after his re-election remains to be seen

the RMB exchange rate has repeatedly hit new highs. Plastic enterprises have been hit by exports

the Obama administration's China policy is relatively more "cooperative". In this year's US general election, the issue of China has become one of the focuses. In terms of content, the style of the party platforms of the two parties is quite different. Although the Democratic Party also shows its strength in China, it is generally moderate and rational. It has repeatedly mentioned the word "cooperation" and stressed that it will continue to be committed to establishing cooperative relations with China; In terms of trade, the Republican platform accused China of "stealing American intellectual property rights" and claimed that the Republican president was ready to implement punitive tariffs if China did not change its monetary policy. In the second debate, Obama said, "in terms of currency manipulation, due to our great efforts to promote China, the value of China's RMB has risen 11 times during my presidency. We have imposed unprecedented trade pressure on China...". In fact, the exchange rate of China's RMB against the US dollar has risen by nearly one-third since 2005. So, what is the impact of RMB appreciation on plastic related industries

first, the short-term rapid appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will increase many costs of plastic export enterprises, affecting the total export volume and the income of enterprises. Secondly, the rise of the RMB exchange rate will attract a large number of international speculative funds, which will promote the internationalization of China's plastic industry. For many international enterprises, this will promote their pace of entering the Chinese market, which can greatly reduce the huge logistics costs caused by long-distance production. At the same time, it also greatly shortens the delivery time

the appreciation of RMB also worsens the living environment of export enterprises and reduces their international competitiveness. Then, at an important moment when economic transformation and economic downturn overlap, appreciation is bound to make things worse. Plastic industry is also 6 Like magnetic materials, most Chinese plastic processing enterprises are opposed to the appreciation of the RMB, but we also need to look at this problem rationally and take countermeasures as soon as possible, so as to increase the added value of their products, improve market competitiveness, and minimize the threat of the rise and fall of the currency exchange rate to the survival of enterprises. At the same time, we also call on the government, industry associations and other departments to consider the interests of enterprises and introduce corresponding industry response measures and preferential policies for enterprises

China's economic growth slowed down and chemicals fell in the future.

after the election, the market focus turned to "the US fiscal cliff". Most analysts mentioned the "fiscal cliff" of the United States coming at the end of the year. Unless Congress takes action, about $600billion in government spending cuts and tax increases will take effect by the beginning of next year. At the same time, although some analysts believe that some form of compromise can be reached between the two parties in the United States before the end of the year, investors are still worried that once the fiscal cliff is triggered, the U.S. economy struggling in the crisis will fall into recession again. At the same time, the impasse that triggered the downgrade of the U.S. sovereign rating last year may be repeated. As the largest holder of U.S. stocks and bonds, how will China respond

for China, the imminent "fiscal cliff" of the United States is the real threat. The article said that with the gradual contraction of European demand, the United States has once again become China's largest export destination. In 2011, China's total exports to the United States amounted to 324billion US dollars (about 2.04 trillion yuan), accounting for 17.1% of China's total exports and 4.4% of China's GDP. In 2011, China's exports to Europe accounted for 18.8% of total exports, but this share has fallen in 2012. Therefore, if the United States falls into recession after Europe, China's exports to Europe and the United States, the two major trading partners, will shrink, which may shake the global financial markets. The IMF model shows that under the worst scenario, a 4.8 percentage point decline in U.S. GDP may drag down China's economic growth by 1.2 percentage points in 2013. If the financial market pressure is greater than expected, the impact on China may double

the slowdown in domestic economic growth has led to a downturn in market sentiment. The boom of chemical raw materials is recovering, and the chemical fiber industry is in the doldrums. Investment advice: demand picks up, pay attention to the third quarter report. In September, the PMI index of chemical raw materials returned to 52.6 above the dry and prosperous line. New orders, export orders in 2008 and existing order indexes all performed well. New orders rebounded to the historical average level, export orders and existing orders both created a record high, and domestic and foreign demand showed a significant recovery trend

remain cautiously optimistic about the follow-up market of the chemical raw material industry. The 11 diffusion indexes of chemical fiber PMI have no bright spots, and the replenishment of inventory caused by insufficient inventory of downstream products and raw materials has come to an end; Due to the lack of impetus, even the recovery prospect of the chemical fiber industry this year is not very optimistic

after Obama's successful re-election, considering that under the current international background, Obama is committed to establishing the basis of a constructive partnership between China and the United States, the domestic plastic market may rise in the short term with the volatility of the market, futures and electronic markets, but combined with the comprehensive consideration of China's national conditions and seasonal factors, the author believes that the road to the real recovery of the plastic market is still far away

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI