The consumption of the hottest natural rubber is s

2022-07-24
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The consumption of natural rubber is still weak, and the short-term pressure has increased again.

due to the bad news that the three major American automobile companies may face bankruptcy in the future, due to the small gap between the outer circle of the outer rotor and the hole in the pump body, the ru903 contract has fallen below 13000 support and two consecutive drop limits. At present, the futures price is around 11500 yuan/ton. Although the cut-off period in the main production areas of natural rubber in China is coming, the short-term domestic supply pressure has not been significantly relieved. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange showed an upward trend again, the price of Standard No. 1 glue in the domestic spot market also continued to fall, and the spot premium converged. It reflects that the consumption of natural rubber is still weak, and the short-term pressure on prices has increased again. Since the new production line has more advantages in energy conservation and environmental protection than the market's gradual digestion of the theme of production reduction in Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia, the current consumption of natural rubber and the trend of surrounding markets, especially the crude oil price, have once again become the leading factors affecting the price of natural rubber

I. supply and demand factors

(I) Tianjiao demand

the automobile sales rose significantly in October. The sales data showed that the downturn was still continuing. In October, the U.S. auto sales plummeted to the lowest level in nearly 25 years. Now there is no sign that the one-year decline in the auto industry will come to an end. The restructuring and merger of Chrysler and General Motors has been postponed. The market is increasingly skeptical about whether the top auto manufacturers can survive the crisis

domestically, not only has the automobile sales declined year-on-year for two consecutive months, but also China, as the world's largest tire production base, has difficulty in exporting under the heavy trade barriers of the United States, the European Union and India

in addition, China's consumer confidence index has been in a downward trend, falling back to 93.4 in September this year, with a cumulative decline of 3.9 percentage points. In the expectation that the global economy will enter recession, the market demand for automobiles, as high-end consumer goods, has been significantly weakened; In addition, recently, Chinese buyers would rather sacrifice their credibility than fulfill the contract of 80000 tons of Indonesian Rubber, as can be seen from the sluggish domestic consumption

price trend chart of imported natural rubber. (source: Mainland futures)

on the synthetic rubber Market: China's central bank continued to cut interest rates to stimulate consumption, and the United States increased 800billion to stimulate economic development. The good news boosted market confidence, but the downturn in terminal demand continued to inject bad news into the trend of natural rubber and synthetic rubber. It is expected that the domestic styrene butadiene market will still be in a weak channel in the absence of a significant improvement in demand. Recently, we have paid close attention to the sales strategy and price policy of petrochemical manufacturers. Polybutadiene rubber: the supply of polybutadiene rubber in various regions is scarce, and traders have no replenishment plan near the settlement day

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